Vulcan Monthly Update: The 860M Summary

SynMax Research:

Another month, another comprehensive summary of the 860M from the Vulcan team. This month, we tracked a total of 12.7 GW of new projects spread across the U.S., with a heavy concentration in Texas and the Midwest. For the first time in several months, natural gas leads the pack with 5.5 GW of new additions, with solar following closely at 4.9 GW.

This represents the third-largest volume of additions for a December report. Notably, this includes 1.2 GW of "ghost plants"—projects appearing for the first time only after becoming operational. A key example is a 500 MW solar project in Texas that appeared as operational with no prior public tracking.

Cancellations and Retirements

On the supply-reduction side, we observed 2.7 GW of cancellations and 346 MW of retirements. Battery storage projects faced significant headwinds this round, with 900 MW in cancellations. Wind energy also saw its second-highest cancellation month on record, with over 1 GW of projects removed from the queue.

Data Center Monitoring: Enhanced Status Accuracy

We have updated the Vulcan platform to include an "Operational" status for data centers. This change allows us to refine our "NA" (Not Monitored) designation.

Since Vulcan is a construction-monitoring platform, tracking fully operational plants is outside our core mission. By moving active plants into the "Operational" category, the "NA" status now accurately reflects the MW volume that we could monitor but currently do not—typically due to small site footprints or urban settings where satellite delta-monitoring is less effective.

The 2027 Timeline Risk

The chart below utilizes IIR online dates to visualize the pipeline. Our primary concern remains the 2027 timeline; the volume of projects in "None" status (zero construction or land clearing) suggests that many of these targets are unrealistic. Despite these delays, there remains a clear potential for data center capacity to double from the current 37 GW by the end of 2027.

Clients have full access to this data and can drill down to the individual project level. With our weekly satellite and thermal drone capabilities, there is no longer a need for guesswork. Vulcan provides real, actionable intelligence.

For a demo, please reach out to David Bellman: dbellman@synmax.com