Forecast vs. Reality: EIA Overshoots January 2025 Online Generation by 6 GW

This week, we retrospectively examine the online generation figures for January 2025, utilizing the latest EIA-860M data to understand the actual capacity additions during that month. According to the EIA-860M, approximately 4 GW of new generation came online, with solar accounting for the majority at 3 GW.

Notably, the December EIA-860M had projected 9 GW of online generation for January 2025, a significant overestimation compared to the actual figures. In contrast, Vulcan V2 indicated a more accurate figure of 3 GW at that time.

The current 2025 build-out projections in the EIA-860M continue to show substantial monthly additions, with December exhibiting a particularly high anticipated capacity.

Our Vulcan V2 analysis currently averages closer to 3.5 GW of monthly online generation, with a distribution weighted towards the period before summer and the end of the year. Vulcan clients have comprehensive access to this data, broken down by plant and generator ID, facilitating seamless integration with internal power databases for running sensitivities and generation stack scenarios.

This week's update includes eight plants with changes in the UC (Under Construction) table. Five projects were newly identified: three solar, one battery storage, and one natural gas. Three projects were confirmed to be under construction: two onshore wind and one battery storage.

Below, we highlight the 396 MW Hanson solar project (Plant ID 67657). We identified land clearing activity for this project. While the EIA lists a planned online date of September 2026 and indicates an "L" status (no regulatory approval), Vulcan's earliest online projection is November 2025. This suggests the plant could potentially come online before the currently planned date. However, we do not anticipate this earlier timeline unless structural development becomes evident in our monitoring. Importantly, the observed land clearing significantly increases the likelihood of this project's realization compared to projects without such activity. The project's ranking of 4.93 places it in the top 90%, indicating it should be considered a viable project to be included in power modeling moving forward.

67657 Hanson, 396 MW Solar, Coleman County TX, EIA Status: (L) Regulatory approvals pending. Not under construction, Planned Operation: 9/2026 Project Rank: 4.93

Vulcan Earliest Online: 11/11/2025 Vulcan Proposed Online V1: 12-Mar-27 V2: 1-Sep-26

Land Cleared 4/14/2025

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