EIA-860M Update: Project Delays, Data Center Expansion, and Vulcan's Growing Value
Another month brings another EIA-860M update. This month, the report indicates the addition of 7 GW of new projects, predominantly in the southern states. Of this, over 4.6 GW comprises solar projects, with an additional 1.5 GW being battery storage.
Approximately 1 GW of projects were canceled, with the majority being battery projects that had relatively low project rankings – a feature available for Vulcan clients to identify likely cancelled projects. Notably, nine "ghost projects" appeared in the report. Ghost projects are defined as plants that appear in the EIA-860M for the first time as fully operational. The largest of these is the Longhorn Storage 165 MW battery project, which commenced operations in September 2024.
Based on the April report, 2025 is currently not on pace to meet the EIA-860M's ambitious projection of over 60 GW in total builds for the year. The total capacity of projects brought online so far is only 13 GW (averaging 3.3 GW/month), consisting of 8.5 GW of solar and 2.6 GW of batteries.
Vulcan's utility is only increasing as the average of days of delay for projects that are eventually brought online continue to grow. So far in 2025, project delays have averaged over 271 days. Such significant discrepancies in online dates are likely to cause issues in power model dispatches, leading to inaccuracies in power and congestion prices. Vulcan offers easy-to-use scenarios to understand the impact of project delays and/or cancellations.
Our data center updates have reached a relatively steady state. Our current coverage is 90 GW, representing 77% of the data center projects within the IIR database projected up to 2030.
Over time, we anticipate seeing the green bars transition to teal as we capture land clearing and first structures at these proposed sites. Vulcan clients have access to a comprehensive database that provides them with the "Vulcan Earliest Online Date" and other key milestones to better anticipate how the future energy landscape will unfold.
Featuring speakers Bill Perkins and John Arnold, this event will bring top insights into the energy market.
