Coal Retirements: EIA's 2025 Figures Look Overstated

SynMax Research:

Two weeks ago, we noted our incremental gas demand from the power model we are working on. This is still in progress, but the initial view is available in the dashboard. As noted in that article, the EIA-860M expects over 5 GW of coal capacity to retire. However, we did our own digging and found that many of those coal plants have delayed their retirements.

Our Analysis: Only 2.2 GW is realistically retiring by December 2025—less than half of the EIA's estimate. Furthermore, these units account for only one-third of the MWh generation from the full set of retirement candidates. This drop in retirements reduces the gas demand in Q1 by almost 0.5 bcf/d.

What's Actually Retiring Dec 2025

Where EIA Gets It Wrong: The Delays

Several plants originally scheduled for 2025 have been pushed back:

1. J H Campbell (MI) — 1,561 MW → Feb 2026 Three consecutive DOE emergency orders under Federal Power Act Section 202(c) have kept this plant running. The most recent order (Nov 18, 2025) extends operations through Feb 17, 2026. Though its retirement still remains uncertain in Feb 2026 too.
2. South Oak Creek (WI) — 641.6 MW → Dec 2026 We Energies announced in June 2025 that Units 7 & 8 would operate an extra year, citing MISO capacity concerns.
3. Intermountain (UT) — 1,640 MW → Dec 2026 Originally slated for July 2025 retirement but the Utah legislature intervened with SB161 (signed March 2024), giving the state a 2-year option to acquire the plant. Though its retirement still remains uncertain.
4. Comanche U2 (CO) — 396 MW → Dec 2026 Xcel Energy filed a petition on Nov 10, 2025 to extend Unit 2 operations by a year. The request—backed by the Colorado PUC, Energy Office, and Consumer Advocate—came after Unit 3 (750 MW) went offline in August with turbine damage and won't return until June 2026.

2026: The Big Year

With delays piling up, 2026 now carries the bulk of near-term retirements: 6.8 GW.

Key plants:

• Intermountain (UT): 1,640 MW — Both units, Dec 2026
• J H Campbell (MI): 1,561 MW — All 3 units, Feb 2026 (Another delay possible)
• Cumberland U1 (TN): 1,300 MW — TVA's largest coal plant, Dec 2026
• Sherco U1 (MN): 765.3 MW — Dec 2026
• South Oak Creek (WI): 641.6 MW — Units 7 & 8, Dec 2026
• GREC U2 (OK): 492 MW — Jun 2026, when replacement gas comes online
• Comanche U2 (CO): 396 MW — Dec 2026

The concentration of capacity in 2026—particularly Feb 2026 when J H Campbell's current DOE order expires—creates execution risk. Another round of emergency orders is plausible.

2027 and Beyond: 5.1 GW

• Kingston (TN): 1,700 MW — All 9 units retiring Dec 2027
• Cumberland U2 (TN): 1,300 MW — Dec 2028
• Craig U2 + U3 (CO): 981.2 MW — Jan and Sep 2028
• Sherco U3 (MN): 879 MW — Dec 2030
• F B Culley U3 (IN): 265.2 MW — Dec 2032

Bottom Line

EIA's headline retirement figures assume everything goes to plan; it doesn't. Between DOE emergency orders, state legislative interventions, and utility extension petitions, roughly half of the coal capacity "scheduled" for 2025 has already been deferred. On an MWh basis, this drops the impact by two-thirds 2/3. Our new model uses 2.2 GW for Dec 2025, not 5+ GW, with a much lower MWh impact: 2.4 Million MWh instead of over 7 Million MWh. Overall drops Q1 incremental gas demand from power from 2.1 bcf/d to 1.7 bcf/d.

Vulcan continues to innovate and add value to our clients on the platform. For a demo please reach out to our Lead Researcher David Bellman dbellman@synmax.com