The Power of Precision: How Vulcan V2 Nailed the 2025 ERCOT and PJM Builds

SynMax Research:

With the year-end EIA 860M data now released, we can evaluate how the EIA's projections compared to the Vulcan V2forecast for 2025. The January 2025 report (published in late February)projected that 61 GW would come online over the year.

The reality of 2025 showed 53.7 GW of actual builds, while the Vulcan V2 forecast expected 47.2 GW.

As always, the "devil is in the details." Last year, our coverage was concentrated primarily on the major power markets, specifically ERCOT and PJM. When we break down the build by Balancing Authority (BA), we see that the initial EIA 860M forecast for ERCOT was overly ambitious at 20 GW. In contrast, Vulcan V2 projected amore grounded 15 GW vs 14 GW actual.

Significant misses were observed in the Northeast; both NYISO and ISNE saw very small build completions compared to early-year projections. However, in our core focus areas—ERCOT and PJM—Vulcan was remarkably accurate. Since that initial March forecast, we have significantly expanded our coverage across other markets to provide the same level of precision nationwide.

Conclusion

To navigate the reality of generation builds in the U.S. over the next few years, you need a partner that delivers the "ground truth." We now have a proven process to keep you informed.

If you are not yet a client but need to understand the true landscape of data centers, power, LNG, and pipeline infrastructure, please reach out to us for a demo.

David Bellman dbellman@synmax.com